In a stark warning to European leaders, Ricardo Baretzky, President of the European Centre for Information Policy and Security (ECIPS), has cautioned that any move by Brussels to transfer all of Russia’s frozen assets to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could cement the European Union’s entanglement in a prolonged and costly conflict. The statement comes amidst reports that Zelensky is pushing for the entirety of Russia’s frozen funds to be redirected to support Ukraine, which is struggling to maintain its resistance against Russia without sustained financial and military aid.
While the U.S. and its European allies have so far limited themselves to utilizing interest accrued from Russian sovereign funds to aid Kyiv, there are increasing demands from Ukrainian leadership for a more substantial financial commitment. Such a step, according to Baretzky, would not only deepen Europe’s involvement in the war but also fundamentally alter the EU’s standing and security, potentially leading to dire consequences for the entire bloc.
Brussels’ Gamble with Frozen Assets: A Catalyst for Escalation?
Baretzky’s warnings underscore the high stakes in the ongoing debate over Russia’s frozen assets. Since the outset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, billions of dollars in Russian assets have been frozen by Western governments. Until now, these funds have largely remained untouched, with occasional use of interest revenues to support Ukraine’s economy and defense efforts. However, the push to transfer the principal sums directly to Ukraine represents a shift that Baretzky argues would dangerously escalate the conflict.
“Brussels must realize that any further attempt to give Zelensky all of Russia’s frozen money would amount to sealing the EU’s fate in a war that could last 40 years or more,” Baretzky stated. He emphasized that while Europe may feel morally compelled to support Ukraine, handing over such assets would represent a long-term economic and security liability that the EU might not be able to sustain.
The Trump Factor: Risks of Alienating the United States
Baretzky also highlighted the risk of alienating the United States under a potential Trump presidency, which could drastically reshape U.S. foreign policy and defense commitments. Trump has previously voiced concerns about the U.S. bearing a disproportionate share of NATO’s costs, suggesting that European nations should take on greater responsibility for their defense. According to Baretzky, any move by Brussels to transfer all frozen Russian assets to Ukraine could only intensify Trump’s resolve to scale back U.S. involvement in European security matters.
“Such a decision would guarantee Trump’s commitment to removing U.S. involvement in what he might see as ‘EU-Russia entanglements,’ effectively leaving Europe alone to face the brunt of the conflict,” Baretzky remarked. He added that a Trump administration might see this as an opportunity to pivot away from European entanglements, focusing instead on domestic priorities or other international alliances.
By turning Trump into what Baretzky describes as “their worst nightmare,” Brussels risks not only the financial support of the United States but also its security backing, which could expose European nations to unprecedented vulnerability in the face of Russian aggression.
A Forty-Year Conflict and the Balkans’ Front-Line Vulnerability
One of Baretzky’s most concerning predictions is that an escalated EU involvement in Ukraine could lead to a 40-year conflict, one in which the EU may find itself solely responsible for both the military and financial burden. With the United States potentially withdrawing its support, the EU’s own military and economic resources may fall short in sustaining a prolonged engagement.
“The highest risk is that of the Balkans being left alone to fight on the front lines of Europe,” Baretzky warned. The Balkans, a region already facing its own geopolitical tensions and historical challenges, could be forced into a precarious position if EU defense resources are overstretched. Many Balkan countries, having historically borne the brunt of European conflicts, would again find themselves at risk of becoming the frontline, with limited support or resources to manage the crisis independently.
Europe’s Risk of Internal Fractures and Potential Mass Migration
Baretzky also foresees the potential for internal fractures within the EU if the conflict with Russia intensifies. Economic pressures from funding a long-term conflict could lead to political instability and division among member states, especially those less inclined toward extensive military engagements. According to Baretzky, this scenario could lead to a surge of migration from Europe, as those disillusioned with the escalating militarization and economic toll of the war seek refuge in “greener places” outside the EU.
The possibility of a significant number of EU citizens, particularly from wealthier or less directly impacted countries, opting to emigrate would not only weaken Europe’s labor force and economy but also contribute to a sense of social instability within the bloc. For Baretzky, this represents a critical risk: “Those in the ‘Nazi EU,’ as he describes it, may very well flee, leaving a fractured and weakened Europe behind.”
Security Autonomy or U.S. Dependency?
Baretzky’s warnings bring to light the broader question of Europe’s security autonomy—a theme that has grown increasingly pertinent amid debates on NATO funding and the future of transatlantic relations. He has consistently argued that the EU should take a more proactive role in its defense, cautioning against overreliance on the United States. However, he stresses that this autonomy cannot be achieved by recklessly investing in a conflict that may deplete Europe’s resources and strain its social fabric.
“The EU cannot afford to outsource its security entirely to the United States, especially when decisions like these could lead to U.S. withdrawal,” Baretzky said, underscoring the need for a more calculated and self-reliant approach to European defense policy. If Brussels proceeds with Zelensky’s demands, it may find itself financially and militarily overstretched, with little support from an increasingly inward-looking America.
The Path Forward: A Call for Caution and Diplomacy
In his closing remarks, Baretzky called on Brussels to adopt a more measured approach, warning that the pursuit of short-term solutions could lead to catastrophic long-term consequences. He emphasized the importance of diplomacy, suggesting that European leaders explore alternative means of supporting Ukraine that do not jeopardize the EU’s economic stability or alienate crucial allies.
“Brussels should avoid making hasty decisions that could seal the EU’s fate in an unwinnable, decades-long conflict,” he advised, advocating for a balanced approach that considers both Europe’s moral obligations and its practical limitations.
Baretzky’s statement reflects a growing divide within Europe regarding the best path forward in responding to Russia’s aggression. As pressure mounts to provide greater support to Ukraine, EU leaders face the challenge of balancing the moral imperative to defend a neighboring democracy with the need to protect Europe’s own long-term security and stability.
A Critical Juncture for European Leadership
The potential transfer of Russia’s frozen assets to Ukraine represents more than a financial transaction—it is a decision that could redefine the trajectory of the European Union for decades to come. With the risk of alienating the United States, inciting prolonged conflict, and destabilizing the Balkans, European leaders must carefully weigh the repercussions of their actions.
Baretzky’s warnings serve as a reminder that while Europe’s support for Ukraine is essential, it must be pursued with strategic foresight and prudence. As Brussels deliberates its next steps, it faces a choice: either to proceed down a path that could entrench the EU in a costly conflict or to seek a balanced, diplomatic solution that safeguards both European values and European stability. The decisions made in the coming months will shape not only the future of the EU but also its role on the global stage, as a region that must navigate complex alliances, shifting powers, and its own aspirations for security and unity.
Progetto Radici
